Congressional Map Changes Spell More Bad News For Democrats

North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation

Tuesday afternoon, state Redistricting Committee Chairs Sen. Bob Rucho (R-Mecklenburg) and Rep. David Lewis (R-Harnett) released a second draft of a congressional redistricting map that would further solidify expected Republican gains in North Carolina's U.S. House delegation. An initial draft congressional plan released on July 1 was notable for maintaining much of the geographical appearance of North Carolina's existing 13 congressional districts while adjusting boundary lines enough to produce a much more favorable political map for the GOP and placing the re-election hopes of four Democratic incumbents, Reps. Larry Kissell, Mike McIntyre, Brad Miller and Heath Shuler, in peril. The revised map released earlier this week would make the 2012 election an even more daunting prospect for these four Democrats.

In addition to some substantial geographic changes and demographic "tweaks," the revised map double-bunks Reps. David Price and Miller in House District 4 as well as Reps. Kissell and McIntyre in House District 8. It is important to note that, unlike state legislative races, congressional candidates do not have to live in the district in which they choose to, but candidates are often politically disadvantaged if they do not live in the district they are seeking to represent. Nonetheless, we have already seen some indication that Reps. Miller and McIntyre may exercise their option to run for a seat in the district that neighbors the one into which they have been drawn instead of facing a fellow Democratic incumbent in a 2012 primary election. The bottom line with these newly revised congressional maps is that Democrats will almost certainly lose their 7 to 6 seat advantage in North Carolina's congressional delegation, and the likelihood that the new maps could produce as much as a 10 to 3 seat Republican majority is more of a possibility.

The "Ripple Effects" of Redrawing House District 1

It may seem a bit unusual for proposed congressional maps released less than three weeks apart to vary so widely, but the recognition of potential legal issues with Democratic Rep. G.K. Butterfield's majority-minority House District 1 prompted changes that caused ripple effects across the state. In the initial draft, Rep. Butterfield's territory would have maintained much of the district's traditional area in Northeastern North Carolina and would have also reached into the more urban/suburban areas of Wake County. In doing this, the proposed House District 1 omitted some counties in the eastern part of the state that are covered by the Voting Rights Act (VRA), which requires enhanced consideration of minority voting rights due to historical discrimination. While the Republican redistricting leadership contends the initial draft "was fully compliant with the Voting Rights Act," their interest in redrawing the map before a legal challenge could be raised suggests the threat of a lawsuit over this specific issue caused enough of a concern to prompt them to alter it. Redistricting Chairs Sen. Rucho and Rep. Lewis also noted, "We have made several changes in this second proposed congressional plan based upon comments received during the public hearings, comments on the General Assembly's website and feedback from members of Congress." Regardless of the reason, the resulting adjustments made to House District 1 obviously affected other Eastern North Carolina districts the most, but also had consequences throughout the state.

McIntyre's Position Weakened

While changes to Rep. Butterfield's House District 1 prompted the congressional map redraw, the resulting ripple effect appears to have impacted Rep. Mike McIntyre (D-Robeson) the most. In the initial draft, House District 7, which Rep. McIntyre has represented since his election in 1996, was geographically similar to the district's existing configuration, with the exception of a few modifications that exchanged some Democratic-leaning territory for new GOP-leaning voters. While the district appeared to become more GOP-friendly under the initial map, it was not altered as much as some of the other districts currently held by Democrats. As a result, most political observers looking at the first map agreed that Rep. McIntyre was the most likely of the four politically endangered Democrats to survive.

The revised District 7, however, is significantly different, as most of Rep. McIntyre's home county of Robeson, including his residence, is now included in House District 8, which is currently represented by fellow Democrat Rep. Kissell. Rep. McIntyre has already indicated that he plans to run for re-election in House District 7 despite now living in District 8. Although the new iteration of District 7 more closely resembles McIntyre's current district in Southeastern North Carolina, it has gained territory near the Triangle, namely Johnston County, and has lost most of McIntyre's home base in Robeson County, adding a substantial number of voters new to McIntyre and eliminating longtime McIntyre supporters, particularly those among the Lumbee Tribe in Robeson County. The new District 7 is now more than five percentage points more Republican than the existing district based on GOP voter registration (28.3 percent in the old district versus 33.3 percent in the new) and 2008 presidential election results (52.2 percent voted for Republican John McCain in the old district and 57.6 percent did so in the new). Furthermore, the less compact geography of the new district may also impact the cost of campaigning in 2012. The current District 7 is anchored in the Wilmington media market, with a small portion in and around Fayetteville taking in the Raleigh media market. Under the latest plan, candidates here will be forced to campaign, and likely make substantial financial investments, in three media markets - Wilmington, Raleigh and Greenville - making a race in District 7 even more expensive.

Other Disadvantaged Democrats

The three other Democrats initially disadvantaged by Republican redistricting plans, Reps. Kissell, Shuler, and Miller, have seen their reelection prospects change marginally under these revised maps. Rep. Shuler's District 11, which was already drawn to be the most Republican in the state, is now slightly more so. In District 4, the boundary lines have been redrawn to encompass the residence of Rep. Miller, as well as that of fellow Democratic Rep. David Price. Rep. Miller has already stated he will not run against Rep. Price, making the most viable re-election option a run in the completely new District 13, which still takes in big portions of Wake County, but now heads east into largely rural Eastern North Carolina counties like Nash, Wilson, Edgecombe, and Wayne. Similar to the first map draft, the newly revised District 13 clearly favors Republicans, making Rep. Miller's political fate quite unfavorable. Rep. Kissell (D-Montgomery) also faces diminished odds at returning to Congress under the second draft of congressional map. As with the first plan, Rep. Kissell has seen many Democratic voters removed from District 8 and new areas favoring the GOP added. The revised district lines will only serve to embolden the many GOP congressional aspirants that have had their eye on this district since the first draft was released on July 1.

GOP Candidate Shuffle

The dramatically altered congressional map has not only affected incumbent Democrats, but it has created both problems and opportunities for would-be Republican candidates as well. When the boundary lines for District 13 were initially released, several Republicans quickly threw their hats into the ring. That action turned out to be premature, as the congressional district boundaries moved in the second draft. Forsyth County GOP Chairman Nathan Tabor hoped to run against Rep. Miller, but as that district moved east, Tabor dropped his bid. Former Winston-Salem City Councilman Vernon Robinson found himself in a similar situation, but is waiting until the maps are final before he makes another announcement regarding his political plans. No word yet from Rockingham County District Attorney Phil Berger, Jr. who also had expressed an interest in challenging Rep. Miller. The Wake County based aspirants may still run in District 13, so the GOP field may continue to include former U.S. Attorney George Holding, Wake County Commissioner Paul Coble, and 2010 District 13 GOP nominee Bill Randall.

Some other Republicans have seen opportunity under the new map, too. Shortly after the revised plan was released, State Sen. David Rouzer (R-Johnston) announced his intentions to run in District 7, now that it includes his home county of Johnston. 2010 District 7 GOP nominee Ilario Pantano has been campaigning for months already, but rumors indicate that some in the GOP would prefer another candidate, and Sen. Rouzer may be their newly-minted alternative.

As with the second draft of the congressional maps, any further modifications will likely result in additional candidate announcements. Once thing is certain, these newly defined districts will become home to crowded, competitive, and expensive Republican primaries.

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NCFEF staff John Rustin and Jonathan Kappler contributed to this report.

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Redistricting Article Links

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