A Closer Look at N.C. Senate Double-Bunkings

North Carolina FreeEnterprise Foundation

Whenever the North Carolina General Assembly reapportions legislative districts following the decennial census there are always winners and there are always losers. Often, the most obvious individuals to fall into the later category are incumbent lawmakers who are drawn into the same district boundaries with one of their colleagues, or "double-bunked." While some may attempt to discern the reason or intent behind the double-bunkings in the maps recently approved by the North Carolina Senate and House, we prefer instead to look ahead and analyze what it means to that district, the balance of power in the legislature, and to state politics in general.

In the N.C. Senate map, there were six cases of double-bunking: three districts in which two Republican incumbents were drawn together, one district containing two incumbent Democrats, and two districts where an incumbent Republican and an incumbent Democrat were combined. As a result, a total of eight Republicans and four Democrats were housed in double-bunked districts, however, not all of these double-bunkings have equal political ramifications.

DOUBLE-BUNKED SENATORS:

Intraparty:

District 10: Brent Jackson (R) / David Rouzer (R)

District 29: Jerry Tillman (R) / Harris Blake (R)

District 46: Debbie Clary (R) / Warren Daniel (R)

District 23: Ellie Kinnaird (D) / Bob Atwater (D)

Interparty:

District 26: Phil Berger (R) / Don Vaughan (D)

District 31: Pete Brunstetter (R) / Linda Garrou (D)

Republican Double-Bunkings Likely to Avoid Primary Fights

In the three districts in which Senate Republicans were combined, the GOP has the potential to avoid tough incumbent vs. incumbent primaries. The new Senate District 10 is home to freshman Sen. Brent Jackson (R-Sampson) and sophomore Sen. David Rouzer (R-Johnston). This double-bunking was not a part of the originally released draft redistricting map, but came about in a later revision. At the same time the Senate map was being modified, changes were also being made to the North Carolina congressional map. During that period, the new U.S. House District 7 was redrawn to contain Johnston County, Sen. Rouzer's home county. Soon thereafter, Sen. Rouzer announced his intentions to run for Congress, paving the way for Sen. Jackson to run as the incumbent senator in Senate District 10.

Largely due to population shifts from rural to urban and suburban areas of North Carolina, as well as legal requirements to keep counties whole whenever possible during the remapping process, five-term GOP incumbents Sen. Jerry Tillman (R-Randolph) and Sen. Harris Blake (R-Moore) were drawn together in the new Senate District 29. Sen. Blake recently announced that he will not seek re-election next year, enabling Sen. Tillman to carry the advantage of incumbency into the 2012 election.

In the redrawn Senate District 46, Sens. Debbie Clary (R-Cleveland) and Warren Daniel (R-Burke) could have found themselves as potential political rivals, but a couple of weeks earlier, Sen. Clary announced that she plans to resign from the Senate in November to open a consulting and lobbying firm. While this was a convenient break for freshman Sen. Daniel, a replacement for Sen. Clary will be appointed following her departure from the chamber. That individual could choose to run against Sen. Daniel in the 2012 Republican primary. Perhaps the more likely outcome, however, is for the local GOP to select a caretaker for Sen. Clary's vacated seat who would not run for election next year.

Democrats May Bear the Brunt of Double-Bunking

Despite the fact that twice as many Republicans as Democrats have been drawn into the same districts under the GOP-crafted redistricting plans, Democrats ultimately may be more negatively affected by double-bunking. Democratic Sens. Ellie Kinnaird (D-Orange) and Bob Atwater (D-Chatham) were drawn together, and so far there is no indication that either will willingly step aside. Both are probably hoping that legal challenges will be successful forcing the approved maps to be redrawn. Incidentally, this is not the first time Sen. Kinnaird has been double-bunked. In 2002, a Democratically-penned redistricting plan drew her into the same district as then-Sen. Howard Lee (D-Orange). Sen. Kinnaird won that Democratic primary by just 119 votes, and she has indicated that she won't shy away from another primary battle if the map stays as it is drawn.

The two situations were Democratic incumbents have been drawn into the same district as Republican incumbents not surprisingly favor the Republicans. Sen. Don Vaughan (D-Guilford) now resides in the same district as Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger (R-Rockingham). The district leans Republican and Sen. Berger has already begun raising significant amounts of campaign cash as the Senate leader. Similarly, Sen. Linda Garrou (D-Forsyth) was drawn into the same district as Sen. Pete Brunstetter (R-Forsyth). If Sen. Garrou runs in 2012, it would likely be an effort to force Sen. Brunstetter to spend campaign cash in a general election with an essentially foregone conclusion, since the district is strong Republican territory.

Notes on Double-Bunkings

When examining double-bunkings in the N.C. Senate, it's important to note that just because two Republicans have been drawn together in one district, that does not necessarily mean the GOP is losing seats in the chamber. Redistricting is required to ensure North Carolina's population has equal representation. As the demographics of the state shift, districts based in rural locations around the state are becoming geographically larger and those areas are losing relative representation. In some regions of the state, Republicans hold those rural districts, making it difficult to avoid double-bunking among the majority party. However, just as districts in some parts of the state are forced to expand in order to meet population requirements, other districts are being added in urban and suburban areas that don't contain incumbent members of the General Assembly.

A comprehensive review of the partisan leanings of each N.C. Senate district is needed to gain a complete understanding of what the overall political playing field really looks like. The NC FreeEnterprise Foundation is currently conducting such a study and will be providing additional analysis in future editions of About the Capital, so stay tuned

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NCFEF staff John Rustin and Jonathan Kappler contributed to this report.

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